Bubble, schmubble...
I've recently received calls from clients concerned about the so-called housing bubble. My crystal ball's in the shop, so I can't tell you when or if it will happen, but it wouldn't affect the way I do business. I'm not planning to sell my home, I've always cautioned clients against buying more home than they can afford, and I've never encouraged property-flipping, even when speculation was running rampant here. Still, there has been a lot of talk among my colleagues about this. Here's an excerpt from last week's "C-Ville" (archived at c-ville.com, 12/6/06):For six years the local housing market has been booming, with prices rising each year in the double digits, and demand surpassing supply. However, in the past six months both the national market and the local market have showed signs of slowing.
On the national front, at the beginning of November, the nation’s largest luxury home builder, Toll Brothers, announced plans to scale back its original building forecasts for 2006. Their announcement cited the effects of Hurricane Katrina and rising oil prices as reasons buyers are growing more cautious. The company has developments in Louisa and Culpeper counties and, as C-VILLE reported in November, has been rumored to be backing Hunter Craig’s purchase of the Breeden property. [See “Southern exposure,” page 29.] Craig has not confirmed the rumor.
Locally, statistics from the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors (CAAR) tell much the same story.
“We’ve been at a record-setting market pace for the last five or six years,” says CAAR president Dave Phillips. “It’s unsustainable. We are starting to see signs that the marketplace is becoming more normal, getting more healthy.”
So while there is certainly a slowdown (and frankly, it slows down every winter, that's why I take my vacations in January), I don't think first-time homebuyers should be afraid of the bubble bursting. Now is the time to look before things pick up again in the spring (when new students and professors move to Charlottesville and look for homes). If you'd like to talk about it more, just drop me an e-mail.
Happy Holidays!
<< Home